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A Pessimistic Prediction
Contra Matthew Yglesias’s rosy-eyed belief that passing financial reform will somehow prove to be a much easier task for the Democrats than health care was, I offer you these pessimistic reflections on how things will go horribly wrong:
Democrats will outline a “strong” version of the financial reform bill, though it will still basically be objectively watered down in comparison to the hopes raised by liberal progressive bloggers following the many rumors of Volcker’s return to power in the administration.
This “strong” bill, however, will face staunch resistance by bankers (though many bankers and financiers—especially the smarter ones—will also have decided to simply double-down and go along with the administration, probably as a PR move), as well as nihilistic rage by Republicans, who will be able to launch a massive campaign of deception and further rile up populist ire against the Obama administration.
In an effort to please the Republicans, as well as the holdouts in the banking industry, Obama will launch a series of “backdoor” meetings, through which the bill becomes further watered down. Also, no Republican will support it—and Democrats will not call them out on it in public.
Republicans will launch a massive advertising campaign demonstrating how the Obama administration has “colluded” with the financial sector, and that the Democrats are in the pockets of lobbyists and billionaires. Misguided populist rage ensues.
Years later, creepy, plastic-haired Republican is elected president and—thanks to instantaneous Democratic capitulation and a debilitating case of political Stockholm Syndrome—their proposed financial
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